Summary:
NQ was just cross 2390, which was the key for our own opinion. It is thus *important* to follow its acting around this price zone and, at the same time, we shall change our thinking here. It's improper to build any bearish positions though it's in a long bearish mkt. As for those we owned, we just wait for timing/spacing stop point.
Individual Securities:
Bear:Bull=-1% v.s 7.5% in the position recommended.
Self Warnings:
Patience. Patience.
The end of tunnel is about there.
2008年8月8日 星期五
Weekly Review
度假回來了。三天的假期，台股出現了相當的變化，我們趁著周末來仔細思考一下。
先看這段日子以來，Rebecca對於各個金融商品的評論回顧。
… 原油再127左右看跌，預測崩跌第一目標121.5，再來115。好像沒什麼錯喔。聽說我們偉大、冗員充斥的某國營企業，成本不明的東西竟然要降價咧。
… 歐元看崩。即使是在1.558提出看法的，各位讀者，你賺了500點了啊。看崩1.535必來，預測反彈位置在1.48。今天度假回來，歐元已然崩跌至1.5060。
… 上証看跌，2677必然完成。管他什麼奧運，什麼喊話護盤，2677就是得來啦。(惡魔之音: 不是2200…???) 在今天這個”中國人”偉大的日子，上証狂瀉4.47% 來到2605。
以上都不是想證明什麼，因為最重要的美股，Rebecca猜錯了，連帶使得台股操作，也並不順利。
學習主控盤，最常被疑問就是 “目標測幅一定要來嗎?” “軋空點為何一定不能破? 殺多點為何一定不能突破?” 應該反過來說，主控盤主力踩點為的是什麼? 是要引發認同，引導趨勢，才能見關過關。當一個主力，隨便控盤，殘害外圍，這個認同感就消失了，而趨勢也不存在。
對美股而言，原油跌，它就要漲嗎? 當然不是。歐元跌，它就會漲嗎? 這不盡然。最重要的是本身價的結構，必須作出型態方向與續動。但是它有嗎? 也難怪外圍市場如台灣，根本不理他的走勢，而必須自己走出續動。
周五台股大漲184點，來到7209，最高7216。跟我們所預測的7230/7195已然非常接近 (期貨領先完成7230，今高7234，已暗示必來)，多單理應獲利出場部分。大家或許奇怪的是，周四美國可是大跌呢。這告訴我們，美國這個爛主力，由於踩點極差，害慘了台股主力，逼使台股自立自強，今低7000，有破我們提示的6995嗎?
也就是，現階段台股主力控盤是踩得極為穩健的，不可放空！只要7230能來，這波反彈將看目標區7450。當然，依照之前的推論，已然立秋，6708或許我們不得不承認是波段的一個低點，但絕對不是這未來4年的低點。不過目前，不建議任何空單操作。
操作建議
反彈波持續，壓回請站多方，7450為目標，不可作空，請忍耐。
先看這段日子以來，Rebecca對於各個金融商品的評論回顧。
… 原油再127左右看跌，預測崩跌第一目標121.5，再來115。好像沒什麼錯喔。聽說我們偉大、冗員充斥的某國營企業，成本不明的東西竟然要降價咧。
… 歐元看崩。即使是在1.558提出看法的，各位讀者，你賺了500點了啊。看崩1.535必來，預測反彈位置在1.48。今天度假回來，歐元已然崩跌至1.5060。
… 上証看跌，2677必然完成。管他什麼奧運，什麼喊話護盤，2677就是得來啦。(惡魔之音: 不是2200…???) 在今天這個”中國人”偉大的日子，上証狂瀉4.47% 來到2605。
以上都不是想證明什麼，因為最重要的美股，Rebecca猜錯了，連帶使得台股操作，也並不順利。
學習主控盤，最常被疑問就是 “目標測幅一定要來嗎?” “軋空點為何一定不能破? 殺多點為何一定不能突破?” 應該反過來說，主控盤主力踩點為的是什麼? 是要引發認同，引導趨勢，才能見關過關。當一個主力，隨便控盤，殘害外圍，這個認同感就消失了，而趨勢也不存在。
對美股而言，原油跌，它就要漲嗎? 當然不是。歐元跌，它就會漲嗎? 這不盡然。最重要的是本身價的結構，必須作出型態方向與續動。但是它有嗎? 也難怪外圍市場如台灣，根本不理他的走勢，而必須自己走出續動。
周五台股大漲184點，來到7209，最高7216。跟我們所預測的7230/7195已然非常接近 (期貨領先完成7230，今高7234，已暗示必來)，多單理應獲利出場部分。大家或許奇怪的是，周四美國可是大跌呢。這告訴我們，美國這個爛主力，由於踩點極差，害慘了台股主力，逼使台股自立自強，今低7000，有破我們提示的6995嗎?
也就是，現階段台股主力控盤是踩得極為穩健的，不可放空！只要7230能來，這波反彈將看目標區7450。當然，依照之前的推論，已然立秋，6708或許我們不得不承認是波段的一個低點，但絕對不是這未來4年的低點。不過目前，不建議任何空單操作。
操作建議
反彈波持續，壓回請站多方，7450為目標，不可作空，請忍耐。
Sky is the limit?
Summary:
The answer was quite obvious - No and MA is the limit. Price pressure here was expected so that no more bullish position should be built.
The situation here is quite akward and is not easy to operate just as mentioned in previous articles. So? Hold on owned position and keep an eye on how NQ acts on 2390-2280 price range.
Individual Securities:
-3.8% v.s -2.1% in the position recommended.
Self Warnings:
Patience. Patience. Patience.
The answer was quite obvious - No and MA is the limit. Price pressure here was expected so that no more bullish position should be built.
The situation here is quite akward and is not easy to operate just as mentioned in previous articles. So? Hold on owned position and keep an eye on how NQ acts on 2390-2280 price range.
Individual Securities:
-3.8% v.s -2.1% in the position recommended.
Self Warnings:
Patience. Patience. Patience.
2008年8月7日 星期四
Meaningless Day
A boring day.
It's good that Rebecca is on vacation. It would be a waste of life if stick on the market like today.
The key points do not change at all. The prediction still useful tomorrow.
Next Monday is the key day. If no burst out, we might look foward for the establishment of the short positions. Sure tomorrow the defence is important, too.
Suggestion
Still the same, look out the box bottom 6995 and key point 7010.
It's good that Rebecca is on vacation. It would be a waste of life if stick on the market like today.
The key points do not change at all. The prediction still useful tomorrow.
Next Monday is the key day. If no burst out, we might look foward for the establishment of the short positions. Sure tomorrow the defence is important, too.
Suggestion
Still the same, look out the box bottom 6995 and key point 7010.
2008年8月6日 星期三
Chaos is REAL...
Summary:
The chaos is real... It's truely a little bit hard to operate here. I slightly changed position to a 5:5 ratio. HM@N and A@N were both out two days ago with reasonable profits. The reason for that were week-view divergence.
Other individauls were included in the observation list and we would pay attention to those new candidates.
Individual Securities:
a.) B@CN was in the bullish observation list. See how it works at the top of the box here.
b.) The price here was pretty crucial to B@V. Let's sliently follow its
determination.
Self Warnings:
a.) Patience. Patience. Patience.
The chaos is real... It's truely a little bit hard to operate here. I slightly changed position to a 5:5 ratio. HM@N and A@N were both out two days ago with reasonable profits. The reason for that were week-view divergence.
Other individauls were included in the observation list and we would pay attention to those new candidates.
Individual Securities:
a.) B@CN was in the bullish observation list. See how it works at the top of the box here.
b.) The price here was pretty crucial to B@V. Let's sliently follow its
determination.
Self Warnings:
a.) Patience. Patience. Patience.
The Tough Days
We had predicted that the crude oil entering the slumping section, and 115 seems inevitable. Also, we expect the crashing of the euro. Both fit our expectation; however, we got trouble in the stock markets of the united states. It's horrible, but we have to admit it, because the market is always correct.
The rally of the united state is not in our thinking. You might say it's due to the crash of the crude oil, but for we technical analyzers, it's not the case. I have to say that I am really confused with the trend of the united states. I don't think it will continue burst out. Before a clear trend is established, retreating from the united states is a better option.
For taiwan stock market, I don't believe it will rally at present. Someone made wrong action yesterday, so in the early trade today, he has to stop loss and changing his positions. That's why it seems weak in the early trade, while pulled up in the last. However, since it did form a new pattern of rising, we have to follow it. Before 7010 was broken, it will continue going up, the aim is 7230. Don't expect it will rise sharply, it's still a range market.
Suggestion
Resting is a good choice. Buy near the bottom ( 6995 or so ) and sell around the top ( 7180 )and the aim 7230. Don't chase at high.
The rally of the united state is not in our thinking. You might say it's due to the crash of the crude oil, but for we technical analyzers, it's not the case. I have to say that I am really confused with the trend of the united states. I don't think it will continue burst out. Before a clear trend is established, retreating from the united states is a better option.
For taiwan stock market, I don't believe it will rally at present. Someone made wrong action yesterday, so in the early trade today, he has to stop loss and changing his positions. That's why it seems weak in the early trade, while pulled up in the last. However, since it did form a new pattern of rising, we have to follow it. Before 7010 was broken, it will continue going up, the aim is 7230. Don't expect it will rise sharply, it's still a range market.
Suggestion
Resting is a good choice. Buy near the bottom ( 6995 or so ) and sell around the top ( 7180 )and the aim 7230. Don't chase at high.
2008年8月5日 星期二
Just Do It
開盤不久即跌破箱底6977，盤勢重新進入下跌段，同時也產生型態賣點。也只能順勢操作。
明天是我們設定必須破底的日子，萬一不破，則8月7日立秋，空頭將無以為繼。
操作建議
目前持空單，若破底則必須部分獲利了結。空單防守點在箱底6977以及6965型態點。
(由於外出度假，只能簡略解盤，並在時間上有所延遲。)
明天是我們設定必須破底的日子，萬一不破，則8月7日立秋，空頭將無以為繼。
操作建議
目前持空單，若破底則必須部分獲利了結。空單防守點在箱底6977以及6965型態點。
(由於外出度假，只能簡略解盤，並在時間上有所延遲。)
2008年8月4日 星期一
In The Mud
沉悶的一天。
當開盤開在6947，大家有沒有一絲嘆息? 真是搞什麼鬼，又開在箱底6928之上。剛好最低來到6927，就黏在箱底價。當然今天開盤就玩完了，上沖下洗的盤勢也不令人意外。大盤，仍然陷在泥沼之中。
震盪就是震盪，著急也沒有用，不如就修身養性，度個假、看看畫展也是不錯。何必盯著沒有趨勢的盤，自己窮緊張呢？
結構上都是對空頭有力的盤勢，指標、均線，都是向下助跌，為何殺不動呢？是不是該重新作一番檢視？
請記住8月7日這個日子，這天是立秋，多頭若能撐過去，將對多有利。反過來說，這兩天，一旦跳破箱底，將有破底的危機。沒有趨勢就算了，當趨勢出現，可別以為還在震盪。這兩天只要跳破箱底6977，請空軍追殺之，會有立刻破底的問題。
操作建議
震盪走勢，空頭趨勢不作多，這是保護自己的鐵律。周二周三這兩天，是多頭危急存亡的關頭，一旦破箱底，請追殺。賭性堅強者，6600Put 擇點買進。
當開盤開在6947，大家有沒有一絲嘆息? 真是搞什麼鬼，又開在箱底6928之上。剛好最低來到6927，就黏在箱底價。當然今天開盤就玩完了，上沖下洗的盤勢也不令人意外。大盤，仍然陷在泥沼之中。
震盪就是震盪，著急也沒有用，不如就修身養性，度個假、看看畫展也是不錯。何必盯著沒有趨勢的盤，自己窮緊張呢？
結構上都是對空頭有力的盤勢，指標、均線，都是向下助跌，為何殺不動呢？是不是該重新作一番檢視？
請記住8月7日這個日子，這天是立秋，多頭若能撐過去，將對多有利。反過來說，這兩天，一旦跳破箱底，將有破底的危機。沒有趨勢就算了，當趨勢出現，可別以為還在震盪。這兩天只要跳破箱底6977，請空軍追殺之，會有立刻破底的問題。
操作建議
震盪走勢，空頭趨勢不作多，這是保護自己的鐵律。周二周三這兩天，是多頭危急存亡的關頭，一旦破箱底，請追殺。賭性堅強者，6600Put 擇點買進。
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