反彈之所以叫反彈， 就在於更大層級的趨勢是走空的，不然就叫回升了，怎麼是反彈。日線看似虎虎生風，蓄勢待發，但當我們跳開日線的羈絆，仔細檢視一下周月線，長線空頭可是摩拳擦掌，等著給予致命一級呢。
所以反彈波的操作，不如不做。如果一定要做，就必須縮短循環，一旦出現一點點風吹草動 ，就必須及早因應。短線上出現瑕疵，或是不合理的走勢，當然先閃再說。
昨天我們說過，由於漂流的拉高，反而讓超短線神兵利器威廉指標攻頂，這實在是多頭躁進的結果。我們因此預估今天要嘛開高殺低，要嘛避雷針。這就已經暗示，就day trade的角度 今天該做多嗎？答案是顯而易見的。
當然，這個殺低的程度，確實超越我們的預期。同時也封閉缺口，並隱約產生賣點。唯一有利多頭的是今天的母線是量縮。今天的走勢，也見證了長線空頭，堅守7384的決心。
除非今天高點以及7384能迅速有效突破，否則就指標及型態而言，很遺憾的，反彈幾乎已經宣告結束。當然必須等周一作型態的確認， 一旦確認起跌，只好請空軍重新歸隊。
操作建議
由於封閉缺口，周一理應出現多頭反撲。一旦反撲失敗，確認起跌，則空軍升空。目標先看破6900。
2008年8月15日 星期五
2008年8月14日 星期四
Be Patient is the Best Policy
美股仍然這樣無企圖的漂流。應該重挫的，卻拉升尾盤，也再一次證明美股只能鬼混，沒有企圖。
台股當然就不客氣了，小幅震盪後收高，看起來很強，似乎是一個收腳細微C波的結束。當然我們看7430-7450的想法依然不變。但是期貨這種漂流式的收最高，實在是犯了大忌，期貨的超短線威廉指標再度攻頂。好在現貨並未跟進，而且現貨上未過7368，危機稍緩。預計直接跳低的機率不大，而是以開高殺低，或避雷針的機會較大。
操作建議
不追高，跳高開則視7430是否完成，決定是獲利平倉出場，或反打空單。開低則以期貨型態點7190、攻擊點7339為多單攻防。
台股當然就不客氣了，小幅震盪後收高，看起來很強，似乎是一個收腳細微C波的結束。當然我們看7430-7450的想法依然不變。但是期貨這種漂流式的收最高，實在是犯了大忌，期貨的超短線威廉指標再度攻頂。好在現貨並未跟進，而且現貨上未過7368，危機稍緩。預計直接跳低的機率不大，而是以開高殺低，或避雷針的機會較大。
操作建議
不追高，跳高開則視7430是否完成，決定是獲利平倉出場，或反打空單。開低則以期貨型態點7190、攻擊點7339為多單攻防。
2008年8月13日 星期三
The Abandoned Triplets?
無聊的震盪盤。趨勢上，我們的看法不變，7430-7450區間，理應完成。
今天，歐元完成了我們的目標1.4826，最低來到1.4817。這邊，請各位不要再追殺歐元了。持有歐元、石油、黃金空單者，請獲利了結。等待下一次崩盤時機。
相對於歐元、石油、黃金的主控盤，美股顯得似乎是無主遊魂。仍然是只能作出方向盤，而沒有實力作出續動。今天是關鍵，如果能重挫，表示美股主力歸隊。
明天台股理應作下殺，但是這個下殺是空單認錯，多單重新佈局的好機會。請把握。
操作建議
震盪盤堅走勢，請勿追高。明天若如預期下殺請佈建多單。
今天，歐元完成了我們的目標1.4826，最低來到1.4817。這邊，請各位不要再追殺歐元了。持有歐元、石油、黃金空單者，請獲利了結。等待下一次崩盤時機。
相對於歐元、石油、黃金的主控盤，美股顯得似乎是無主遊魂。仍然是只能作出方向盤，而沒有實力作出續動。今天是關鍵，如果能重挫，表示美股主力歸隊。
明天台股理應作下殺，但是這個下殺是空單認錯，多單重新佈局的好機會。請把握。
操作建議
震盪盤堅走勢，請勿追高。明天若如預期下殺請佈建多單。
2008年8月12日 星期二
Hold On..
Summary:
It's good to see NQ stands healthily here. Maybe a pullback will be seen soon but we need to worry only if 2390 is not guarded. Without any questions, the trend is still not for building any full Bullish/Bearish position. Hold tight on a 50/50 position is still a valid recommendation.
Individual Securities:
a) Bear:Bull=1% v.s 3.5% in the position recommended. It's still working as
expected though only half resources has been in.
b) Added R@T@ in bullish position today.
Self Warnings:
a) Watch out the pullback and set the turning point.
b) The end of tunnel is about there.
It's good to see NQ stands healthily here. Maybe a pullback will be seen soon but we need to worry only if 2390 is not guarded. Without any questions, the trend is still not for building any full Bullish/Bearish position. Hold tight on a 50/50 position is still a valid recommendation.
Individual Securities:
a) Bear:Bull=1% v.s 3.5% in the position recommended. It's still working as
expected though only half resources has been in.
b) Added R@T@ in bullish position today.
Self Warnings:
a) Watch out the pullback and set the turning point.
b) The end of tunnel is about there.
2008年8月11日 星期一
Nothing Special
Still in the bouncing road.
It’s good that the bouncing still on the way. Since the short-term direction is confirmed, there is no need to make comment everyday.
Crude oil had already reached our aim 115. Please no further chase killing crude oil here. Anyway there will be a rebound, and a bull trap will be made before further slump. So is euro. That is, US market? We don't know...... but no look so good.
Suggestion:
Already Profit out half today, since it comes to the heavy pressure zone. The aim is still set at 7430 or so. When there is a pullback, please buy.
It’s good that the bouncing still on the way. Since the short-term direction is confirmed, there is no need to make comment everyday.
Crude oil had already reached our aim 115. Please no further chase killing crude oil here. Anyway there will be a rebound, and a bull trap will be made before further slump. So is euro. That is, US market? We don't know...... but no look so good.
Suggestion:
Already Profit out half today, since it comes to the heavy pressure zone. The aim is still set at 7430 or so. When there is a pullback, please buy.
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